Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
